| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.7% | 38% | +9.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 76.4% | 79% | -3.0% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 59.2% | 51% | +8.5% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.8% | 64% | -3.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 59.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 34.5% | 23.8% | 41.7% |
| xgboost | 43.4% | 21.8% | 34.7% |
| logistic | 35.2% | 30.1% | 34.8% |
| Osnabruck | Dresden | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1365 | 1392 |
| Surface Elo | 1365 | 1392 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| Rest days | 21 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Holstein Kiel | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Holstein Kiel | 1 - 1 | D |
| 13 Sep | H | Hertha Berlin | 1 - 3 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Braunschweig | 3 - 1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | Bochum | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Hertha Berlin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Hertha Berlin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Braunschweig | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Bochum | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Heidenheim | 3 - 5 | L |
| 28 Jun 2020 | Dresden | 2 - 2 | Osnabruck |
| 15 Dec 2019 | Osnabruck | 3 - 0 | Dresden |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.63 | 38.0% | 10 Oct 12:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 10 Oct 12:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.40 | 41.7% | 10 Oct 12:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.62 | 61.7% | 10 Oct 12:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 10 Oct 12:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.75 | 26.7% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.75 | 36.4% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.59 | 62.9% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |