| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.8% | no line | ✗ miss | |
| DC | Home or away | 84.4% | no line | ✗ miss | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 73.6% | no line | void | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.9% | no line | ✗ miss | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 47.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.7% | 27.3% | 32.0% |
| xgboost | 43.8% | 27.1% | 29.1% |
| logistic | 45.5% | 27.8% | 26.7% |
| Ceuta | Valladolid | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1443 | 1369 |
| Surface Elo | 1443 | 1369 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 8 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 11 Sep | A | Burgos | 1 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Celta B | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Mallorca | 0 - 3 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | Las Palmas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | Andorra | 1 - 5 | L |
| 13 Sep | H | Oviedo | 0 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Andorra | 1 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | Cadiz | 1 - 1 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | Eibar | 0 - 1 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | Mallorca | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Ceuta | 0 - 3 | Valladolid |
| 15 Aug 2025 | Valladolid | 3 - 0 | Ceuta |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No bookmaker lines stored. | |||||