| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.6% | 82% | -23.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 73.5% | 26.5% |
| logistic | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| Mateus Alves | Jose Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1494 | 1454 |
| Surface Elo | 1494 | 1454 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 18 Oct | H | Munk Mesa, Bernardo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Bruno Fernandez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Jose Pereira | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Tristan McCormick | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Lautaro Midon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Mateus Alves | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Lautaro Midon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Mateus Alves | 0 - 1 | Jose Pereira |
| 29 Sep 2026 | Jose Pereira | 1 - 2 | Mateus Alves |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Jose Pereira | 1 - 2 | Mateus Alves |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.00 | 25.0% | 19 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.22 | 82.0% | 19 Oct 06:15 |