| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 51.5% | 60% | -8.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| logistic | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| Jaime Faria | Terence Atmane | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1808 | 1778 |
| Surface Elo | 1808 | 1778 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 22 | 25 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Sep | H | Terence Atmane | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Sep | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 1 - 3 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Jenson Brooksby | 3 - 2 | W |
| 20 Aug | H | Lorenzo Musetti | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Aug | A | Adam Walton | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Jaime Faria | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Jaume Munar | 2 - 3 | L |
| 18 Aug | A | Alexander Zverev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | Marton Fucsovics | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep 2026 | Jaime Faria | 2 - 1 | Terence Atmane |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.71 | 58.5% | 23 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 23 Sep 06:15 |