| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.7% | 57% | -3.6% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.1% | 84% | -4.7% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 70.8% | 76% | -5.6% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% | 59% | -2.1% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.2% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 49.7% | 25.7% | 24.5% |
| xgboost | 54.1% | 22.7% | 23.2% |
| logistic | 56.6% | 24.6% | 18.8% |
| Modena | Mantova | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1491 | 1481 |
| Surface Elo | 1491 | 1481 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 27 Oct | A | L.R. Vicenza | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | Vicenza | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Cesena | 3 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Cesena | 3 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Reggiana | 0 - 0 | D |
| 27 Oct | H | Cremonese | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Oct | H | Cremonese | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Virtus Entella | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Virtus Entella | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Palermo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Mar 2026 | Modena | 2 - 1 | Mantova |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Mantova | 1 - 3 | Modena |
| 01 Feb 2025 | Modena | 3 - 1 | Mantova |
| 30 Nov 2024 | Mantova | 0 - 0 | Modena |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.40 | 22.7% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.75 | 57.1% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 30 Oct 06:15 |