| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 50.3% | 51% | -1.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 76.7% | 81% | -4.2% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 63.3% | 69% | -5.3% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.5% | 64% | +0.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 60.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 32.0% | 28.0% | 40.0% |
| xgboost | 32.2% | 18.4% | 49.4% |
| logistic | 30.3% | 28.0% | 41.8% |
| Accrington | Salford | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1367 | 1528 |
| Surface Elo | 1367 | 1528 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | H | Cheltenham | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Cheltenham | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Swindon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Swindon | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Sep | H | Sunderland | 3 - 3 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Fleetwood Town | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Fleetwood Town | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Oldham | 4 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Oldham | 4 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Sheffield Weds | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Feb 2026 | Accrington | 1 - 0 | Salford |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Salford | 2 - 1 | Accrington |
| 18 Apr 2025 | Salford | 1 - 2 | Accrington |
| 21 Dec 2024 | Accrington | 0 - 2 | Salford |
| 01 Jan 2024 | Accrington | 3 - 0 | Salford |
| 26 Aug 2023 | Salford | 1 - 2 | Accrington |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.99 | 50.2% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.40 | 29.4% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |