| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.0% | 43% | +6.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 76.5% | 74% | +2.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 66.3% | 60% | +6.0% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.1% | 54% | +4.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 44.4% | 27.7% | 27.8% |
| xgboost | 49.1% | 28.4% | 22.5% |
| logistic | 47.0% | 27.0% | 26.0% |
| Cagliari | Monza | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1675 | 1556 |
| Surface Elo | 1675 | 1556 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 11 Oct | H | Juventus | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | Juventus | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Udinese | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Atalanta | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Lecce | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Lazio | 1 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Lazio | 1 - 3 | L |
| 18 Sep | H | Sassuolo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Lecce | 2 - 3 | L |
| 06 Sep | A | Parma | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Mar 2025 | Cagliari | 3 - 0 | Monza |
| 05 Jan 2025 | Monza | 1 - 2 | Cagliari |
| 16 Mar 2024 | Monza | 1 - 0 | Cagliari |
| 26 Nov 2023 | Cagliari | 1 - 1 | Monza |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.80 | 35.7% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.30 | 43.5% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.85 | 54.0% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.82 | 54.9% | 12 Oct 06:15 |