OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-11
⚽ Eredivisie · Sunday 11 October 2026, 14:45 UTC · finished
Excelsior 1.60 1 - 5 1.00 Groningen
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 44.9%39%+6.2%✗ miss
DCHome or away 74.1%77%-3.3%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 56.9%52%+4.6%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 62.8%64%-1.4%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 59.4%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson40.7%27.3%32.0%
xgboost34.9%31.7%33.5%
logistic36.7%27.1%36.2%
Inputs the models saw
ExcelsiorGroningen
Elo (pre-match)15201551
Surface Elo15201551
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.601.00
Form trend0.70-0.70
Season points per game1.571.57
Season goals for / game2.142.14
Season goals against / game1.291.86
Rest days2122
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W5 W · 0 D
Excelsior: last 5
22 SepAZSV Sportlust 462 - 0W
19 SepAAjax2 - 2D
19 SepAAjax2 - 2D
13 SepHUtrecht1 - 2L
08 SepANijmegen2 - 2D
Groningen: last 5
18 SepHZwolle3 - 0W
12 SepAGo Ahead Eagles1 - 1D
06 SepHTwente2 - 2D
28 AugHFor Sittard2 - 3L
23 AugAPSV Eindhoven1 - 5L
Head to head
02 May 2026Groningen2 - 3Excelsior
05 Dec 2025Excelsior0 - 2Groningen
25 Feb 2023Groningen3 - 0Excelsior
08 Jan 2023Excelsior1 - 0Groningen
06 Apr 2019Groningen1 - 0Excelsior
02 Nov 2018Excelsior2 - 4Groningen
29 Apr 2018Groningen4 - 0Excelsior
17 Dec 2017Excelsior2 - 0Groningen
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.3542.5%11 Oct 15:45
Bet3651X2draw3.6027.8%11 Oct 15:45
Bet3651X2home2.8035.7%11 Oct 15:45
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.5365.4%11 Oct 15:45
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.4041.7%11 Oct 15:45
SportyBet1X2away2.6238.2%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.7326.8%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.6238.2%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5863.3%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.4540.8%11 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:19 UTC