| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 37.3% | 42% | -4.7% | |
| DC | Home or away | 71.5% | 73% | -1.6% | |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 52.1% | 54% | -1.9% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 selected | 62.5% | 60% | +2.6% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 63.5% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.4% | 25.0% | 30.9% |
| xgboost | 32.5% | 29.7% | 37.8% |
| logistic | 26.8% | 30.0% | 43.1% |
| Sociedad | Atlético Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1526 | 1631 |
| Surface Elo | 1526 | 1631 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.70 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 5 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 6 W · 4 D |
| 07 Sep | A | Elche | 3 - 2 | W |
| 03 Sep | H | Celta | 0 - 0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | Espanol | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Aug | A | Real Madrid | 1 - 4 | L |
| 21 Aug | A | Betis | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Athletic Club | 0 - 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Sevilla | 3 - 1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | Villarreal | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Aug | H | Malaga | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 May | A | Villarreal | 1 - 5 | L |
| 07 Mar 2026 | Atlético Madrid | 3 - 2 | Sociedad |
| 04 Jan 2026 | Sociedad | 1 - 1 | Atlético Madrid |
| 10 May 2025 | Atlético Madrid | 4 - 0 | Sociedad |
| 06 Oct 2024 | Sociedad | 1 - 1 | Atlético Madrid |
| 25 May 2024 | Sociedad | 0 - 2 | Atlético Madrid |
| 08 Oct 2023 | Atlético Madrid | 2 - 1 | Sociedad |
| 28 May 2023 | Atlético Madrid | 2 - 1 | Sociedad |
| 03 Sep 2022 | Sociedad | 1 - 1 | Atlético Madrid |
| 22 May 2022 | Sociedad | 1 - 2 | Atlético Madrid |
| 24 Oct 2021 | Atlético Madrid | 2 - 2 | Sociedad |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.38 | 42.0% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.80 | 35.7% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 13 Sep 19:39 |