| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 61.3% | 79% | -18.1% |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 23.9% | 76.0% |
| logistic | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Stefano Travaglia | Otto Virtanen | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1637 | 1678 |
| Surface Elo | 1637 | 1678 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W 路 0 D |
| 29 Oct | A | Laslo Djere | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Pierre Hugues Herbert | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Maks Kasnikowski | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Viktor Durasovic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Maks Kasnikowski | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Oct | A | Matisse Bobichon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Oct | A | Matteo Martineau | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Vitaliy Sachko | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Dominic Stricker | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Oct | A | Remy Bertola | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Jan 2026 | Otto Virtanen | 2 - 0 | Stefano Travaglia |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.26 | 79.4% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.60 | 27.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |