OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-28
⚽ England EFL Cup · Wednesday 28 October 2026, 19:45 UTC · finished
Bournemouth 1.40 3 - 0 2.00 Aston Villa
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 49.5%43%+6.6%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 76.3%70%+6.3%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 65.6%58%+7.2%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 56.6%59%-2.3%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 56.9%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson40.4%25.8%33.8%
xgboost50.2%28.4%21.5%
logistic52.1%26.6%21.3%
Inputs the models saw
BournemouthAston Villa
Elo (pre-match)17701777
Surface Elo17701777
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.402.00
Form trend-0.70-0.60
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days34
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W4 W · 3 D
Bournemouth: last 5
25 OctAMan Utd3 - 0W
25 OctAManchester United3 - 0W
22 OctHAc Milan3 - 0W
18 OctHSunderland2 - 0W
18 OctHSunderland2 - 0W
Aston Villa: last 5
27 OctABlackpool2 - 3L
24 OctHManchester City2 - 1W
24 OctHManchester City2 - 1W
21 OctHViking FK3 - 1W
17 OctANewcastle1 - 0W
Head to head
07 Feb 2026Bournemouth1 - 1Aston Villa
09 Nov 2025Aston Villa4 - 0Bournemouth
10 May 2025Bournemouth0 - 1Aston Villa
26 Oct 2024Aston Villa1 - 1Bournemouth
21 Apr 2024Aston Villa3 - 1Bournemouth
03 Dec 2023Bournemouth2 - 2Aston Villa
18 Mar 2023Aston Villa3 - 0Bournemouth
06 Aug 2022Bournemouth2 - 0Aston Villa
01 Feb 2020Bournemouth2 - 1Aston Villa
17 Aug 2019Aston Villa1 - 2Bournemouth
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away3.1331.9%28 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.6927.1%28 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.3342.9%28 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6859.5%28 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.2544.4%28 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:56 UTC