OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
⚽ England Premier League · Saturday 17 October 2026, 11:30 UTC · finished
Everton 1.40 0 - 2 1.40 Chelsea
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 45.4%31%+14.4%✗ miss
DCHome or away 74.3%76%-1.8%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 57.7%42%+15.9%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 70.8%60%+10.8%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 63.6%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson35.6%27.5%37.0%
xgboost36.8%32.1%31.1%
logistic42.4%25.8%31.8%
Inputs the models saw
EvertonChelsea
Elo (pre-match)17131724
Surface Elo17131724
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.401.40
Form trend-0.200.00
Season points per game1.003.00
Season goals for / game2.005.00
Season goals against / game2.001.00
Rest days56
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W4 W · 3 D
Everton: last 5
11 OctAHull2 - 2D
11 OctAHull2 - 2D
23 SepABoreham Wood1 - 1D
19 SepHIpswich1 - 0W
12 SepATottenham0 - 0D
Chelsea: last 5
13 OctAReading2 - 0W
10 OctHBournemouth5 - 1W
10 OctHBournemouth5 - 1W
18 SepABrentford0 - 3L
12 SepHHull2 - 2D
Head to head
21 Mar 2026Everton3 - 0Chelsea
13 Dec 2025Chelsea2 - 0Everton
26 Apr 2025Chelsea1 - 0Everton
22 Dec 2024Everton0 - 0Chelsea
15 Apr 2024Chelsea6 - 0Everton
10 Dec 2023Everton2 - 0Chelsea
18 Mar 2023Chelsea2 - 2Everton
06 Aug 2022Everton0 - 1Chelsea
01 May 2022Everton1 - 0Chelsea
16 Dec 2021Chelsea1 - 1Everton
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away2.2344.8%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.8026.3%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home3.2430.9%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6759.9%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.2544.4%16 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:21 UTC