OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-24
⚽ Germany Bundesliga · Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC · finished
Mainz 1.80 2 - 3 1.80 Werder Bremen
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 53.3%56%-3.0%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 78.6%80%-1.4%✗ miss
DNBHome (DNB) 69.9%73%-3.3%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 70.3%65%+5.4%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 69.0%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson51.0%24.5%24.5%
xgboost51.7%21.7%26.7%
logistic58.3%24.1%17.6%
Inputs the models saw
MainzWerder Bremen
Elo (pre-match)16351568
Surface Elo16351568
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.801.80
Form trend0.000.40
Season points per game2.001.00
Season goals for / game2.672.00
Season goals against / game2.332.00
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W5 W · 2 D
Mainz: last 5
17 OctASchalke 041 - 0W
17 OctASchalke 041 - 0W
10 OctHBayer Leverkusen3 - 4L
10 OctHBayer Leverkusen3 - 4L
19 SepABorussia M´gladbach4 - 3W
Werder Bremen: last 5
17 OctHPaderborn2 - 2D
17 OctHPaderborn2 - 2D
09 OctABorussia Dortmund2 - 2D
09 OctABorussia Dortmund2 - 2D
19 SepHAugsburg3 - 2W
Head to head
15 Mar 2026Werder Bremen0 - 2Mainz
01 Nov 2025Mainz1 - 1Werder Bremen
31 Jan 2025Werder Bremen1 - 0Mainz
15 Sep 2024Mainz1 - 2Werder Bremen
03 Feb 2024Mainz0 - 1Werder Bremen
02 Sep 2023Werder Bremen4 - 0Mainz
08 Apr 2023Mainz2 - 2Werder Bremen
15 Oct 2022Werder Bremen0 - 2Mainz
21 Apr 2021Werder Bremen0 - 1Mainz
19 Dec 2020Mainz0 - 1Werder Bremen
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away4.4122.7%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.2423.6%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.7955.9%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5464.9%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.5539.2%23 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:55 UTC