| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.7% | 70% | -13.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 65.0% | 34.9% |
| logistic | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| Oleksandr Ovcharenko | Lorenzo Angelini | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1455 | 1407 |
| Surface Elo | 1455 | 1407 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Pierluigi Basile | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Georgii Kravchenko | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Pol Martin Tiffon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | Robert Strombachs | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Aug | A | Benjamin Hassan | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Garrett Johns | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Garrett Johns | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Sciahbasi, M | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.70 | 37.0% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.43 | 69.9% | 04 Oct 06:15 |