| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.3% | 54% | -3.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.7% | 80% | -3.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 65.8% | 71% | -5.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.1% | 60% | -4.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 50.9% | 23.3% | 25.8% |
| xgboost | 46.3% | 25.6% | 28.1% |
| logistic | 49.4% | 27.1% | 23.5% |
| Falkirk | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1640 | 1607 |
| Surface Elo | 1640 | 1607 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.89 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.11 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 2.22 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Hibernian | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Hibernian | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Dundee | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Dundee | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | St Johnstone | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Motherwell | 3 - 2 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Motherwell | 3 - 2 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Rangers | 1 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Rangers | 1 - 3 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Hamilton | 0 - 3 | L |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Falkirk | 5 - 1 | Kilmarnock |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Kilmarnock | 0 - 1 | Falkirk |
| 01 Nov 2025 | Falkirk | 3 - 1 | Kilmarnock |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.50 | 28.6% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.86 | 53.8% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.62 | 61.7% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.92 | 25.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.88 | 25.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.90 | 52.6% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.65 | 60.6% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 24 Oct 06:15 |