| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.1% | 64% | -3.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| logistic | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| Harold Mayot | Murphy Cassone | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1740 | 1646 |
| Surface Elo | 1740 | 1646 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.88 | 0.40 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 25 Sep | H | Jesper De Jong | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Edas Butvilas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Justin Boulais | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Titouan Droguet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | H | Daniel Masur | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Billy Harris | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Clement Tabur | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Patrick Zahraj | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Harold Mayot | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Harold Mayot | 2 - 1 | Murphy Cassone |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.56 | 64.1% | 26 Sep 06:15 |