| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 71.4% | 78% | -7.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 93.7% | 95% | -1.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 92.6% | 93% | -0.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% | 61% | -6.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 47.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 63.3% | 23.0% | 13.7% |
| xgboost | 67.2% | 21.2% | 11.7% |
| logistic | 67.6% | 20.6% | 11.8% |
| Ac Milan | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1762 | 1592 |
| Surface Elo | 1762 | 1592 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| Rest days | 8 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 7 W | 0 W · 3 D |
| 20 Sep | A | Villa Dalme Valle Brembana | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Lazio | 2 - 2 | D |
| 06 Sep | A | Juventus | 1 - 1 | D |
| 28 Aug | H | Venezia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | Torino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | H | Monza | 3 - 2 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Cagliari | 0 - 1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Roma | 0 - 4 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | Venezia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 May | H | Genoa | 1 - 0 | W |
| 18 Jan 2026 | Ac Milan | 1 - 0 | Lecce |
| 29 Aug 2025 | Lecce | 0 - 2 | Ac Milan |
| 08 Mar 2025 | Lecce | 2 - 3 | Ac Milan |
| 27 Sep 2024 | Ac Milan | 3 - 0 | Lecce |
| 06 Apr 2024 | Ac Milan | 3 - 0 | Lecce |
| 11 Nov 2023 | Lecce | 2 - 2 | Ac Milan |
| 23 Apr 2023 | Ac Milan | 2 - 0 | Lecce |
| 14 Jan 2023 | Lecce | 2 - 2 | Ac Milan |
| 22 Jun 2020 | Lecce | 1 - 4 | Ac Milan |
| 20 Oct 2019 | Ac Milan | 2 - 2 | Lecce |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 13.00 | 7.7% | 20 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 6.00 | 16.7% | 20 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.22 | 82.0% | 20 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.53 | 65.4% | 20 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.50 | 40.0% | 20 Sep 19:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 11.81 | 8.5% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 6.42 | 15.6% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.28 | 78.1% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.62 | 61.7% | 20 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 20 Sep 06:16 |