| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 63.2% | 30% | +33.0% | abandoned |
| DC | Home or away | 85.9% | 81% | +5.3% | abandoned |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 76.0% | 41% | +34.8% | abandoned |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 63% | -3.1% | abandoned |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.1% | no line | abandoned |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 22.9% | 23.6% | 53.5% |
| xgboost | 33.2% | 25.7% | 41.1% |
| logistic | 28.6% | 25.9% | 45.5% |
| Union Berlin | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1531 | 1710 |
| Surface Elo | 1531 | 1710 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.70 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 3 W · 2 D |
| 18 Sep | A | Bayern München | 0 - 7 | L |
| 11 Sep | H | Schalke 04 | 1 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Bayer Leverkusen | 0 - 4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 - 3 | D |
| 16 May | H | Augsburg | 4 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Bayer Leverkusen | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Sep | H | Hamburg | 5 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Werder Bremen | 1 - 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 - 0 | W |
| 16 May | A | Freiburg | 1 - 4 | L |
| 24 Apr 2026 | RB Leipzig | 3 - 1 | Union Berlin |
| 12 Dec 2025 | Union Berlin | 3 - 1 | RB Leipzig |
| 01 Feb 2025 | Union Berlin | 0 - 0 | RB Leipzig |
| 14 Sep 2024 | RB Leipzig | 0 - 0 | Union Berlin |
| 04 Feb 2024 | RB Leipzig | 2 - 0 | Union Berlin |
| 03 Sep 2023 | Union Berlin | 0 - 3 | RB Leipzig |
| 11 Feb 2023 | RB Leipzig | 1 - 2 | Union Berlin |
| 20 Aug 2022 | Union Berlin | 2 - 1 | RB Leipzig |
| 23 Apr 2022 | RB Leipzig | 1 - 2 | Union Berlin |
| 03 Dec 2021 | Union Berlin | 2 - 1 | RB Leipzig |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.75 | 26.7% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.81 | 55.2% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.56 | 64.1% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 20 Sep 06:15 |