| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.3% | 72% | -11.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 65.2% | 34.8% |
| logistic | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| Gustavo Heide | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1768 | 1682 |
| Surface Elo | 1768 | 1682 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | H | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 1 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Hernan Casanova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Guido Ivan Justo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Lautaro Midon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Bruno Fernandez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Matias Soto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Gustavo Heide | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Bruno Fernandez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Matias Soto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Gustavo Heide | 2 - 0 | Lautaro Midon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.38 | 72.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |