| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.5% | 50% | +9.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 83.6% | 78% | +5.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 67.6% | 66% | +1.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% | 68% | -7.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.0% | 24.8% | 37.2% |
| xgboost | 29.6% | 34.5% | 35.9% |
| logistic | 31.7% | 26.3% | 42.0% |
| Atlético Madrid | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1741 | 1859 |
| Surface Elo | 1741 | 1859 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.17 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.33 | 2.83 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 3 W · 4 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Huesca | 0 - 0 | D |
| 16 Sep | H | Osasuna | 4 - 0 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Sociedad | 3 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Athletic Club | 0 - 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Sevilla | 3 - 1 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Elche | 3 - 2 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Vallecano | 4 - 1 | W |
| 04 Sep | A | Betis | 0 - 1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Malaga | 4 - 0 | W |
| 26 Aug | H | Sociedad | 4 - 1 | W |
| 22 Mar 2026 | Real Madrid | 3 - 2 | Atlético Madrid |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Atlético Madrid | 5 - 2 | Real Madrid |
| 08 Feb 2025 | Real Madrid | 1 - 1 | Atlético Madrid |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Atlético Madrid | 1 - 1 | Real Madrid |
| 04 Feb 2024 | Real Madrid | 1 - 1 | Atlético Madrid |
| 24 Sep 2023 | Atlético Madrid | 3 - 1 | Real Madrid |
| 25 Feb 2023 | Real Madrid | 1 - 1 | Atlético Madrid |
| 18 Sep 2022 | Atlético Madrid | 1 - 2 | Real Madrid |
| 08 May 2022 | Atlético Madrid | 1 - 0 | Real Madrid |
| 12 Dec 2021 | Real Madrid | 2 - 0 | Atlético Madrid |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.00 | 50.0% | 20 Sep 15:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 20 Sep 15:15 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.50 | 28.6% | 20 Sep 15:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.53 | 65.4% | 20 Sep 15:15 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.50 | 40.0% | 20 Sep 15:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.11 | 47.4% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.88 | 25.8% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.47 | 28.8% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 20 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.50 | 40.0% | 20 Sep 06:16 |