| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 70.9% | 66% | +5.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 38.4% | 61.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 23.3% | 76.6% |
| logistic | 32.4% | 67.6% |
| Tallon Griekspoor | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1788 | 1932 |
| Surface Elo | 1788 | 1932 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 7 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | A | Andrey Rublev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Denis Shapovalov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | A | Denis Shapovalov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Ben Shelton | 1 - 3 | L |
| 09 Aug | A | Daniel Merida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Tallon Griekspoor | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Kyrian Jacquet | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Kyrian Jacquet | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct 2026 | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 1 | Tallon Griekspoor |
| 27 Feb 2026 | Andrey Rublev | 0 - 2 | Tallon Griekspoor |
| 22 Apr 2024 | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 0 | Tallon Griekspoor |
| 19 Jun 2023 | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 1 | Tallon Griekspoor |
| 20 Feb 2023 | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 1 | Tallon Griekspoor |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.56 | 64.1% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 30 Sep 06:15 |