| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.8% | 51% | +4.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.2% | 42.9% |
| xgboost | 54.2% | 44.0% |
| logistic | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | New York Rangers | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1409 | 1495 |
| Surface Elo | 1409 | 1495 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.45 | 0.64 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.45 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.18 | 2.18 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | A | Columbus Blue Jackets | 6 - 2 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | San Jose Sharks | 3 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | New York Islanders | 1 - 4 | L |
| 15 Oct | H | Buffalo Sabres | 4 - 5 | L |
| 14 Oct | A | Utah Utah Hockey Club | 4 - 5 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Anaheim Ducks | 5 - 2 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Columbus Blue Jackets | 0 - 1 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | New Jersey Devils | 1 - 7 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Tampa Bay Lightning | 4 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Vancouver Canucks | 6 - 2 | W |
| 25 Mar 2026 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 4 - 3 | New York Rangers |
| 06 Mar 2026 | New York Rangers | 6 - 2 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 16 Oct 2025 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 2 - 1 | New York Rangers |
| 20 Mar 2025 | New York Rangers | 3 - 4 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 01 Mar 2025 | New York Rangers | 2 - 3 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 1 - 4 | New York Rangers |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.98 | 50.5% | 22 Oct 18:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 1.93 | 51.8% | 22 Oct 18:20 |