OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-27

🎾 tennis_atp_vienna_open · Tuesday 27 October 2026, 12:30 UTC · scheduled

Tommy Paul 1.80 12:30 0.00 Andrey Rublev

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	55.6%	59%	-3.5%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.0%	35.2%
xgboost	46.2%	53.7%
logistic	65.6%	34.4%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Tommy Paul	Andrey Rublev
Elo (pre-match)	1997	1852
Surface Elo	1997	1852
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	0.00
Form trend	0.90	0.00
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	3	6
Head-to-head (last 10)	1 W	5 W · 0 D

Tommy Paul: last 5

24 Oct	H	Taylor Fritz	0 - 1	L
24 Oct	A	Taylor Fritz	0 - 2	L
23 Oct	A	Corentin Moutet	2 - 1	W
23 Oct	A	Corentin Moutet	2 - 1	W
21 Oct	A	Benjamin Bonzi	2 - 1	W

Andrey Rublev: last 5

21 Oct	A	Adrian Mannarino	1 - 2	L
21 Oct	A	Adrian Mannarino	1 - 2	L
09 Oct	A	Rei Sakamoto	0 - 2	L
09 Oct	H	Rei Sakamoto	0 - 2	L
04 Oct	A	Alex De Minaur	1 - 2	L

Head to head

02 Oct 2023	Andrey Rublev	2 - 0	Tommy Paul
10 Oct 2022	Andrey Rublev	2 - 0	Tommy Paul
04 Oct 2021	Andrey Rublev	1 - 2	Tommy Paul
03 May 2021	Andrey Rublev	2 - 1	Tommy Paul
21 Sep 2020	Andrey Rublev	2 - 1	Tommy Paul
30 Jul 2018	Andrey Rublev	2 - 0	Tommy Paul

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Andrey Rublev	2.20	45.5%	27 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.70	58.8%	27 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Andrey Rublev	2.10	47.6%	27 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.73	57.8%	27 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Andrey Rublev	2.10	47.6%	27 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.71	58.5%	27 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Andrey Rublev	2.13	46.9%	27 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.66	60.2%	27 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Andrey Rublev	2.22	45.1%	27 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.80	55.6%	27 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Andrey Rublev	2.26	44.2%	27 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Tommy Paul	1.82	54.9%	27 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Andrey Rublev	2.15	46.5%	27 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.74	57.5%	27 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Andrey Rublev	2.18	45.9%	27 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.66	60.2%	27 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Andrey Rublev	2.27	44.0%	27 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.64	61.0%	27 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Andrey Rublev	2.17	46.1%	27 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.68	59.5%	27 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Andrey Rublev	2.17	46.1%	27 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.68	59.5%	27 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Andrey Rublev	2.22	45.1%	27 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.80	55.6%	27 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Andrey Rublev	2.26	44.2%	27 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Tommy Paul	1.82	54.9%	27 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Andrey Rublev	2.18	45.9%	27 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.66	60.2%	27 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Andrey Rublev	2.13	46.9%	27 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.79	55.9%	27 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Andrey Rublev	2.07	48.3%	27 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.62	61.7%	27 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	2.25	44.4%	27 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.69	59.2%	27 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Andrey Rublev	2.15	46.5%	27 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.62	61.7%	27 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Andrey Rublev	2.10	47.6%	27 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.61	62.1%	27 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Andrey Rublev	2.17	46.1%	27 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.68	59.5%	27 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Andrey Rublev	2.17	46.1%	27 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.68	59.5%	27 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Andrey Rublev	2.10	47.6%	27 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.73	57.8%	27 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Andrey Rublev	2.20	45.5%	27 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.72	58.1%	27 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Andrey Rublev	2.10	47.6%	27 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Tommy Paul	1.66	60.2%	27 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 17:05 UTC