| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.5% | 60% | -8.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.8% | 85% | -7.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 68.4% | 79% | -10.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.5% | 51% | +5.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.8% | 27.5% | 32.7% |
| xgboost | 54.4% | 26.7% | 18.9% |
| logistic | 54.7% | 25.4% | 19.9% |
| QPR | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1526 | 1503 |
| Surface Elo | 1526 | 1503 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.56 | 0.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.22 | 0.89 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.89 | 1.67 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 4 W · 1 D |
| 09 Oct | A | West Ham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 09 Oct | A | West Ham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 09 Oct | A | Southampton | 1 - 5 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Preston North End | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Preston | 2 - 2 | D |
| 13 Oct | A | Scunthorpe | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Wrexham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Wrexham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Brentford | 2 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Burnley | 1 - 1 | D |
| 25 Apr 2026 | QPR | 2 - 3 | Derby |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Derby | 1 - 0 | QPR |
| 14 Feb 2025 | QPR | 4 - 0 | Derby |
| 05 Oct 2024 | Derby | 2 - 0 | QPR |
| 18 Apr 2022 | QPR | 1 - 0 | Derby |
| 29 Nov 2021 | Derby | 1 - 2 | QPR |
| 23 Jan 2021 | QPR | 0 - 1 | Derby |
| 04 Nov 2020 | Derby | 0 - 1 | QPR |
| 25 Feb 2020 | QPR | 2 - 1 | Derby |
| 30 Nov 2019 | Derby | 1 - 1 | QPR |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.20 | 23.8% | 14 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 14 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.76 | 56.8% | 14 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.80 | 55.6% | 14 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 14 Oct 19:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.14 | 19.5% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.09 | 24.4% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.69 | 59.2% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.88 | 53.2% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.96 | 51.0% | 14 Oct 06:15 |