| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 74.4% | 79% | -4.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 88.4% | 11.6% |
| logistic | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| Alex Bolt | Semen Pankin | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1622 | 1477 |
| Surface Elo | 1622 | 1477 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 5 | 15 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | H | Lloyd Harris | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Dane Sweeny | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Evan Zhu | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Semen Pankin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Fabian Marozsan | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Alex Bolt | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Elias Ymer | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Alexis Galarneau | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Yosuke Watanuki | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug | A | Fajing Sun | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep 2026 | Alex Bolt | 2 - 0 | Semen Pankin |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.45 | 29.0% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.28 | 78.1% | 29 Sep 06:15 |