| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 45.2% | 20% | +25.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 76.4% | 79% | -2.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 55.8% | 25% | +30.3% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.6% | 63% | -5.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.3% | 23.7% | 33.0% |
| xgboost | 37.3% | 25.9% | 36.8% |
| logistic | 28.8% | 27.2% | 43.9% |
| Aston Villa | Fenerbahce | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1739 | 1780 |
| Surface Elo | 1739 | 1780 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Brentford | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Brentford | 2 - 2 | D |
| 02 Oct | A | Sevilla | 3 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Crewe | 1 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Tottenham | 3 - 2 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Rizespor | 3 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Rizespor | 3 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Eyupspor | 8 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Eyupspor | 8 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Gaziantep | 0 - 0 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.10 | 19.6% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.47 | 22.4% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.67 | 59.9% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.50 | 40.0% | 14 Oct 06:15 |