| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 53.8% | 57% | -3.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 40.0% | 59.9% |
| logistic | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| Joel Schwaerzler | Harry Wendelken | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1582 | 1577 |
| Surface Elo | 1582 | 1577 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | A | Alberto Barroso Campos | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Lucas Poullain | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Harry Wendelken | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Alberto Barroso Campos | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Filippo Romano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Joel Schwaerzler | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Filippo Romano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | David Jorda Sanchis | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | David Jorda Sanchis | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Harry Wendelken | 0 - 2 | Joel Schwaerzler |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.72 | 58.1% | 01 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 01 Oct 06:15 |