OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-19
🇪🇸 La Liga · Saturday 19 September 2026, 14:15 UTC · finished
Athletic Club 1.40 0 - 0 1.40 Alaves
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 50.4%60%-9.3%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 77.0%85%-7.6%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 68.7%79%-10.0%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 50.4%52%-2.1%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 55.6%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson50.4%26.6%23.0%
logisticfailed: ValueError
xgboostfailed: ValueError
Inputs the models saw
Athletic ClubAlaves
Elo (pre-match)16121613
Surface Elo16121613
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.401.40
Form trend-0.500.50
Season points per game1.401.67
Season goals for / game1.401.83
Season goals against / game1.201.00
Rest days63
Head-to-head (last 10)5 W2 W · 3 D
Athletic Club: last 5
12 SepHElche1 - 1D
05 SepHAtlético Madrid3 - 0W
30 AugACelta2 - 0W
27 AugABarcelona0 - 2L
22 AugHSevilla1 - 3L
Alaves: last 5
15 SepHValencia0 - 1L
12 SepASantander1 - 2L
06 SepHOsasuna5 - 2W
28 AugHVillarreal1 - 0W
20 AugAVallecano1 - 1D
Head to head
02 May 2026Alaves2 - 4Athletic Club
13 Sep 2025Athletic Club0 - 1Alaves
11 May 2025Athletic Club1 - 0Alaves
15 Dec 2024Alaves1 - 1Athletic Club
16 Mar 2024Athletic Club2 - 0Alaves
22 Sep 2023Alaves0 - 2Athletic Club
09 Jan 2022Alaves0 - 0Athletic Club
01 Oct 2021Athletic Club1 - 0Alaves
10 Apr 2021Athletic Club0 - 0Alaves
04 Oct 2020Alaves1 - 0Athletic Club
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away5.7517.4%19 Sep 15:15
Bet3651X2draw3.9025.6%19 Sep 15:15
Bet3651X2home1.6062.5%19 Sep 15:15
Bet365O/U 2.5over2.1047.6%19 Sep 15:15
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.7357.8%19 Sep 15:15
SportyBet1X2away5.5518.0%19 Sep 06:16
SportyBet1X2draw4.0924.4%19 Sep 06:16
SportyBet1X2home1.6859.5%19 Sep 06:16
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.8952.9%19 Sep 06:16
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.9651.0%19 Sep 06:16
Generated 2026-10-30 20:30 UTC