| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.5% | 74% | -13.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 85.0% | 96% | -11.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 78.4% | 93% | -14.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.9% | 59% | -7.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 56.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 69.7% | 19.6% | 10.7% |
| xgboost | 79.0% | 11.9% | 9.1% |
| logistic | 64.7% | 21.9% | 13.4% |
| Hamilton | Peterhead | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1565 | 1383 |
| Surface Elo | 1565 | 1383 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 2.71 | 0.88 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.29 | 0.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.14 | 1.75 |
| Rest days | 14 | 14 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 26 Sep | H | Kilmarnock | 3 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Cowdenbeath | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Queen of Sth | 4 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Queen of the South FC | 4 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | East Kilbride | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Elgin | 0 - 1 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Forfar | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Airdrie Utd | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Airdrieonians FC | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | East Kilbride | 1 - 3 | L |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Hamilton | 3 - 1 | Peterhead |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Peterhead | 2 - 3 | Hamilton |
| 08 Nov 2025 | Hamilton | 3 - 0 | Peterhead |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Peterhead | 2 - 2 | Hamilton |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 7.50 | 13.3% | 03 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.33 | 23.1% | 03 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.33 | 75.2% | 03 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.65 | 60.6% | 03 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 03 Oct 17:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 7.00 | 14.3% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.60 | 21.7% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.40 | 71.4% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 03 Oct 06:15 |