| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.8% | 53% | +1.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 52.5% | 47.4% |
| logistic | 62.9% | 37.1% |
| Felipe Meligeni Alves | Nicolas Jarry | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1646 | 1640 |
| Surface Elo | 1646 | 1640 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.93 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.21 | 0.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.71 | 1.67 |
| Rest days | 4 | 11 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 03 Nov | A | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Nov | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Valerio Aboian | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Carlos Maria Zarate | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | A | Diego Dedura | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Hugo Dellien | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Oct | A | Hugo Dellien | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | A | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Barrios Vera, Marcelo Tomas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Apr 2022 | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 1 - 2 | Nicolas Jarry |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.87 | 53.5% | 08 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.87 | 53.5% | 08 Nov 06:15 |