OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-11
⚽ Germany Bundesliga · Sunday 11 October 2026, 15:30 UTC · finished
Freiburg 2.60 2 - 1 1.60 Schalke 04
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 55.0%59%-4.2%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 80.8%83%-2.1%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 73.4%77%-3.5%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 58.3%63%-4.6%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 55.9%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson55.1%24.0%20.9%
xgboost56.1%23.9%20.0%
logistic57.6%23.6%18.8%
Inputs the models saw
FreiburgSchalke 04
Elo (pre-match)16661590
Surface Elo16661590
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.601.60
Form trend0.400.10
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days2221
Head-to-head (last 10)6 W2 W · 2 D
Freiburg: last 5
19 SepAEintracht Frankfurt2 - 2D
12 SepHBorussia Mönchengladbach5 - 0W
05 SepAPaderborn1 - 0W
30 AugHWerder Bremen4 - 1W
16 MayHRB Leipzig4 - 1W
Schalke 04: last 5
03 OctAAustria Lustenau1 - 0W
24 SepARW Oberhausen5 - 2W
20 SepHElversberg0 - 0D
11 SepAUnion Berlin3 - 1W
05 SepHBayern München0 - 0D
Head to head
23 Apr 2023Freiburg4 - 0Schalke 04
30 Oct 2022Schalke 040 - 2Freiburg
17 Apr 2021Freiburg4 - 0Schalke 04
16 Dec 2020Schalke 040 - 2Freiburg
27 Jun 2020Freiburg4 - 0Schalke 04
21 Dec 2019Schalke 042 - 2Freiburg
16 Feb 2019Schalke 040 - 0Freiburg
25 Sep 2018Freiburg1 - 0Schalke 04
31 Mar 2018Schalke 042 - 0Freiburg
04 Nov 2017Freiburg0 - 1Schalke 04
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away4.9420.2%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.2223.7%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.6959.2%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5962.9%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.3542.5%09 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:08 UTC