| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.0% | 70% | -9.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.9% | 90% | -10.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 74.2% | 86% | -11.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.9% | 72% | -3.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 61.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 51.8% | 23.3% | 24.9% |
| xgboost | 66.1% | 14.1% | 19.8% |
| logistic | 61.9% | 23.5% | 14.6% |
| Plymouth | Swindon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1575 | 1455 |
| Surface Elo | 1575 | 1455 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 10 | 10 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 09 Nov | H | Berkhamsted FC | 1 - 1 | D |
| 07 Nov | H | Alvechurch | 4 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Reading | 0 - 0 | D |
| 31 Oct | H | Reading | 0 - 0 | D |
| 24 Oct | A | Cambridge | 3 - 2 | W |
| 07 Nov | A | Milton Keynes Dons | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Oct | H | Rotherham | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Rotherham | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Bristol Rovers | 0 - 0 | D |
| 24 Oct | A | Bristol Rvs | 0 - 0 | D |
| 26 Jan 2021 | Swindon | 0 - 2 | Plymouth |
| 03 Nov 2020 | Plymouth | 4 - 2 | Swindon |
| 01 Jan 2020 | Plymouth | 1 - 2 | Swindon |
| 12 Oct 2019 | Swindon | 1 - 1 | Plymouth |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.80 | 17.2% | 10 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.00 | 20.0% | 10 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.43 | 69.9% | 10 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.39 | 71.9% | 10 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.95 | 33.9% | 10 Nov 06:15 |