OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-25
⚽ Primeira Liga · Sunday 25 October 2026, 15:30 UTC · finished
Estoril 0.20 1 - 3 0.80 Moreirense
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 49.3%51%-1.8%✗ miss
DCHome or away 76.8%78%-0.7%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 63.7%69%-5.6%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 53.3%53%+0.1%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 50.7%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson46.0%24.0%30.0%
xgboost51.8%22.6%25.6%
logistic43.9%28.2%27.9%
Inputs the models saw
EstorilMoreirense
Elo (pre-match)14381495
Surface Elo14381495
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.200.80
Form trend0.10-0.10
Season points per game0.251.00
Season goals for / game0.501.00
Season goals against / game1.501.88
Rest days1415
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W5 W · 3 D
Estoril: last 5
18 OctASC Salgueiros1 - 1D
10 OctAAcademico Viseu1 - 2L
10 OctAAcademico Viseu1 - 2L
20 SepHCasa Pia1 - 2L
20 SepHCasa Pia1 - 2L
Moreirense: last 5
17 OctAAVS Futebol SAD0 - 1L
09 OctHGil Vicente0 - 1L
09 OctHGil Vicente0 - 1L
20 SepAGuimaraes1 - 1D
20 SepAGuimaraes1 - 1D
Head to head
20 Apr 2026Moreirense1 - 0Estoril
07 Dec 2025Estoril3 - 3Moreirense
11 May 2025Moreirense2 - 2Estoril
28 Dec 2024Estoril2 - 2Moreirense
18 May 2024Moreirense2 - 1Estoril
13 Jan 2024Estoril1 - 3Moreirense
07 May 2022Estoril1 - 0Moreirense
28 Dec 2021Moreirense1 - 0Estoril
12 Feb 2018Moreirense1 - 2Estoril
10 Sep 2017Estoril0 - 2Moreirense
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away4.0025.0%25 Oct 15:30
Bet3651X2draw3.6027.8%25 Oct 15:30
Bet3651X2home1.8155.2%25 Oct 15:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.9850.5%25 Oct 15:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.8853.2%25 Oct 15:30
SportyBet1X2away3.9525.3%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.6927.1%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.9850.5%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.9551.3%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.9052.6%25 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:52 UTC