| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 54.0% | 52% | +1.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 44.4% | 55.5% |
| logistic | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| Filippo Romano | Yanaki Milev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1491 | 1607 |
| Surface Elo | 1491 | 1607 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.36 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.83 | 1.64 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Filip Cristian Jianu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Michele Ribecai | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Sandro Kopp | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Matthew William Donald | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Yanaki Milev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Lorenzo Giustino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Maximus Jones | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Filippo Romano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Lorenzo Giustino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Pavel Lagutin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Filippo Romano | 2 - 0 | Yanaki Milev |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.92 | 52.1% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.82 | 54.9% | 22 Oct 06:15 |