| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.8% | 54% | -2.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 49.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 60.7% | 37.2% |
| logistic | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| Washington Capitals | Montréal Canadiens | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1570 | 1584 |
| Surface Elo | 1570 | 1584 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.17 | 3.17 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 7 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | A | Carolina Hurricanes | 2 - 4 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Seattle Kraken | 3 - 5 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | New York Rangers | 3 - 1 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Pittsburgh Penguins | 5 - 3 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Tampa Bay Lightning | 1 - 3 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Buffalo Sabres | 4 - 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Detroit Red Wings | 1 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Nashville Predators | 2 - 5 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Carolina Hurricanes | 4 - 6 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Pittsburgh Penguins | 5 - 6 | L |
| 01 Mar 2026 | Montréal Canadiens | 6 - 2 | Washington Capitals |
| 14 Jan 2026 | Washington Capitals | 3 - 2 | Montréal Canadiens |
| 21 Nov 2025 | Montréal Canadiens | 4 - 8 | Washington Capitals |
| 30 Apr 2025 | Washington Capitals | 4 - 1 | Montréal Canadiens |
| 27 Apr 2025 | Montréal Canadiens | 2 - 5 | Washington Capitals |
| 25 Apr 2025 | Montréal Canadiens | 6 - 3 | Washington Capitals |
| 23 Apr 2025 | Washington Capitals | 3 - 1 | Montréal Canadiens |
| 21 Apr 2025 | Washington Capitals | 3 - 2 | Montréal Canadiens |
| 11 Jan 2025 | Washington Capitals | 2 - 3 | Montréal Canadiens |
| 08 Dec 2024 | Montréal Canadiens | 2 - 4 | Washington Capitals |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.85 | 54.1% | 14 Oct 23:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 2.07 | 48.3% | 14 Oct 23:20 |