| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.6% | 66% | -3.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 58.9% | 41.0% |
| logistic | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| Aryna Sabalenka | Karolina Muchova | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1943 | 1913 |
| Surface Elo | 1943 | 1913 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 28 | 26 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Ann Li | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Nikola Bartunkova | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Renata Zarazua | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Nikola Bartunkova | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Renata Zarazua | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | Caty McNally | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Diana Shnaider | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Caty McNally | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Nikola Bartunkova | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Naomi Osaka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Jan 2026 | Aryna Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | Karolina Muchova |
| 25 Sep 2024 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1 - 2 | Karolina Muchova |
| 14 Aug 2023 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1 - 2 | Karolina Muchova |
| 29 May 2023 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1 - 2 | Karolina Muchova |
| 22 Oct 2019 | Aryna Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | Karolina Muchova |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.65 | 37.7% | 09 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.51 | 66.2% | 09 Nov 06:15 |