| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.4% | 62% | -2.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 65.5% | 34.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| logistic | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| Gonzalo Villanueva | Miguel Tobon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1496 | 1469 |
| Surface Elo | 1496 | 1469 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.17 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 11 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | H | Miguel Tobon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Carlos Maria Zarate | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Carlos Maria Zarate | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Nick Hardt | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Nick Hardt | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Valerio Aboian | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Nicolas Mejia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Barrios Vera, Marcelo Tomas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Gonzalo Villanueva | 1 - 2 | Miguel Tobon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.60 | 62.5% | 20 Oct 06:15 |