| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.9% | 55% | -1.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 49.5% | 50.4% |
| logistic | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| Thiago Monteiro | Marco Cecchinato | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1626 | 1648 |
| Surface Elo | 1626 | 1648 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.13 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 1.13 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 03 Nov | H | Leonardo Storck Franca | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Nov | A | Marco Cecchinato | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Nov | A | Leonardo Storck Franca | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Henrique Rocha | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Alejandro Moro Canas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Nov | H | Francisco Comesana | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Nov | A | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Nov | H | Thiago Monteiro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Nov | A | Francisco Comesana | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Matej Dodig | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Nov 2026 | Marco Cecchinato | 2 - 0 | Thiago Monteiro |
| 22 Sep 2025 | Marco Cecchinato | 0 - 2 | Thiago Monteiro |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Marco Cecchinato | 2 - 1 | Thiago Monteiro |
| 27 Feb 2023 | Marco Cecchinato | 1 - 2 | Thiago Monteiro |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.00 | 50.0% | 05 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.75 | 57.1% | 05 Nov 06:15 |