| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.5% | 56% | -7.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 75.8% | 83% | -6.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 64.0% | 75% | -11.0% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.2% | 49% | +3.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 51.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 50.8% | 25.4% | 23.8% |
| xgboost | 42.2% | 29.6% | 28.2% |
| logistic | 44.9% | 27.7% | 27.4% |
| Sheffield Utd | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1543 | 1472 |
| Surface Elo | 1543 | 1472 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.36 | 0.55 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.36 | 0.82 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.27 | 1.82 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 6 W | 3 W · 1 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Bristol City | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Bristol City | 1 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Portsmouth | 2 - 3 | L |
| 14 Oct | A | Portsmouth | 2 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Lincoln | 3 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Stoke | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Stoke | 0 - 1 | L |
| 14 Oct | A | QPR | 1 - 4 | L |
| 14 Oct | A | QPR | 1 - 4 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Scunthorpe | 2 - 2 | D |
| 02 May 2026 | Derby | 1 - 2 | Sheffield Utd |
| 01 Nov 2025 | Sheffield Utd | 1 - 3 | Derby |
| 01 Feb 2025 | Derby | 0 - 1 | Sheffield Utd |
| 21 Sep 2024 | Sheffield Utd | 1 - 0 | Derby |
| 15 Jan 2022 | Derby | 2 - 0 | Sheffield Utd |
| 25 Sep 2021 | Sheffield Utd | 1 - 0 | Derby |
| 26 Dec 2018 | Sheffield Utd | 3 - 1 | Derby |
| 20 Oct 2018 | Derby | 2 - 1 | Sheffield Utd |
| 01 Jan 2018 | Derby | 1 - 1 | Sheffield Utd |
| 26 Aug 2017 | Sheffield Utd | 3 - 1 | Derby |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.50 | 22.2% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.71 | 58.5% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 24 Oct 12:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.46 | 22.4% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.93 | 25.4% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.81 | 55.2% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.79 | 55.9% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 24 Oct 06:15 |