| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.1% | 51% | +6.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| logistic | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Lorenzo Musetti | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2015 | 1993 |
| Surface Elo | 2015 | 1993 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.83 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 17 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 4 W · 0 D |
| 25 Oct | H | Taylor Fritz | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | H | Taylor Fritz | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Flavio Cobolli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Flavio Cobolli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Luca Van Assche | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Yannick Hanfmann | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Paterne Mamata | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Arthur Fils | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Frances Tiafoe | 2 - 0 | Lorenzo Musetti |
| 26 May 2025 | Frances Tiafoe | 1 - 3 | Lorenzo Musetti |
| 12 Aug 2024 | Frances Tiafoe | 2 - 0 | Lorenzo Musetti |
| 12 Jun 2023 | Frances Tiafoe | 2 - 1 | Lorenzo Musetti |
| 08 May 2023 | Frances Tiafoe | 1 - 2 | Lorenzo Musetti |
| 02 Jan 2023 | Frances Tiafoe | 1 - 0 | Lorenzo Musetti |
| 15 Mar 2021 | Frances Tiafoe | 1 - 2 | Lorenzo Musetti |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.86 | 53.8% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.00 | 50.0% | 27 Oct 06:15 |