| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 69.8% | 80% | -10.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 24.7% | 75.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 22.9% | 77.0% |
| logistic | 34.6% | 65.4% |
| Matteo Arnaldi | Taylor Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1818 | 2005 |
| Surface Elo | 1818 | 2005 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 9 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Taylor Fritz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Bernard Tomic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Bernard Tomic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Matteo Arnaldi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Jaume Munar | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Jaume Munar | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Francisco Cerundolo | 2 - 3 | L |
| 03 Sep | A | Mattia Bellucci | 3 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Matteo Arnaldi | 0 - 2 | Taylor Fritz |
| 21 Jul 2025 | Matteo Arnaldi | 0 - 2 | Taylor Fritz |
| 26 Feb 2024 | Matteo Arnaldi | 2 - 1 | Taylor Fritz |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.25 | 80.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.15 | 24.1% | 09 Oct 06:15 |