OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-25
⚽ Netherlands Eredivisie · Sunday 25 October 2026, 15:45 UTC · finished
Sparta Rotterdam 1.00 1 - 2 2.20 Ajax
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 59.1%65%-6.3%✓ hit
DCDraw or away 83.2%86%-2.7%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 77.3%81%-3.9%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 72.6%73%-0.4%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 68.6%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson21.5%22.4%56.1%
xgboost19.0%20.6%60.3%
logistic11.7%22.1%66.2%
Inputs the models saw
Sparta RotterdamAjax
Elo (pre-match)14921683
Surface Elo14921683
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.002.20
Form trend-0.500.20
Season points per game1.331.67
Season goals for / game2.002.67
Season goals against / game3.001.67
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)0 W7 W · 3 D
Sparta Rotterdam: last 5
24 OctADe Treffers Groesbeek3 - 3D
17 OctHWillem II3 - 2W
17 OctHWillem II3 - 2W
17 OctAVolendam1 - 2L
10 OctAGo Ahead Eagles3 - 3D
Ajax: last 5
22 OctHAtalanta2 - 0W
18 OctAGroningen5 - 2W
18 OctAGroningen5 - 2W
15 OctAHNK Hajduk Split1 - 2L
10 OctHNijmegen1 - 1D
Head to head
14 Mar 2026Ajax4 - 0Sparta Rotterdam
04 Oct 2025Sparta Rotterdam3 - 3Ajax
27 Apr 2025Ajax1 - 1Sparta Rotterdam
22 Dec 2024Sparta Rotterdam0 - 2Ajax
17 Mar 2024Sparta Rotterdam2 - 2Ajax
09 Dec 2023Ajax2 - 1Sparta Rotterdam
19 Feb 2023Ajax4 - 0Sparta Rotterdam
21 Aug 2022Sparta Rotterdam0 - 1Ajax
09 Apr 2022Ajax2 - 1Sparta Rotterdam
28 Nov 2021Sparta Rotterdam0 - 1Ajax
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away1.5365.4%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.8720.5%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home5.2319.1%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.3773.0%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under3.1032.3%23 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:21 UTC