| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 61.6% | 78% | -16.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 36.6% | 63.4% |
| logistic | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| Francesco Maestrelli | Gabriel Diallo | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1563 | 1752 |
| Surface Elo | 1563 | 1752 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.13 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 27 Oct | A | Moez Echargui | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Borna Gojo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Maxim Mrva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Mili Poljicak | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Maxim Mrva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Oct | H | Nishesh Basavareddy | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Aug | H | Luciano Darderi | 0 - 1 | L |
| 04 Aug | H | Kyrian Jacquet | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Jul | H | Tristan Boyer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Jul | H | Lorenzo Sonego | 2 - 3 | L |
| 01 Jan 2023 | Francesco Maestrelli | 2 - 1 | Gabriel Diallo |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.28 | 78.1% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.45 | 29.0% | 28 Oct 06:15 |