| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.4% | 37% | +11.1% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.3% | 75% | +0.3% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.0% | 51% | +10.1% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.7% | 59% | -5.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.2% | 25.5% | 32.3% |
| xgboost | 35.2% | 28.6% | 36.2% |
| logistic | 40.2% | 27.6% | 32.3% |
| Aston Villa | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1741 | 1753 |
| Surface Elo | 1741 | 1753 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 21 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 3 W · 3 D |
| 02 Oct | A | Sevilla | 3 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Crewe | 1 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Tottenham | 3 - 2 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Nottingham Forest | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Hull | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Derby | 4 - 2 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Milton Keynes Dons | 1 - 7 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Bromley | 1 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | H | Chelsea | 3 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Bournemouth | 2 - 2 | D |
| 01 Feb 2026 | Aston Villa | 0 - 1 | Brentford |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Brentford | 1 - 0 | Aston Villa |
| 08 Mar 2025 | Brentford | 0 - 1 | Aston Villa |
| 04 Dec 2024 | Aston Villa | 3 - 1 | Brentford |
| 06 Apr 2024 | Aston Villa | 3 - 3 | Brentford |
| 17 Dec 2023 | Brentford | 1 - 2 | Aston Villa |
| 22 Apr 2023 | Brentford | 1 - 1 | Aston Villa |
| 23 Oct 2022 | Aston Villa | 4 - 0 | Brentford |
| 02 Jan 2022 | Brentford | 2 - 1 | Aston Villa |
| 28 Aug 2021 | Aston Villa | 1 - 1 | Brentford |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.66 | 37.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.66 | 27.3% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.70 | 37.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.68 | 59.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |