| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.2% | 56% | -1.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 81.3% | 81% | +0.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 73.3% | 74% | -0.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.1% | 43% | +11.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 48.8% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 57.9% | 21.9% | 20.2% |
| xgboost | 50.8% | 27.9% | 21.3% |
| logistic | 56.7% | 26.3% | 17.0% |
| Bielefeld | Osnabruck | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1418 | 1363 |
| Surface Elo | 1418 | 1363 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 11 Oct | A | Bochum | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Bochum | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Heidenheim | 2 - 2 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Heidenheim | 2 - 2 | D |
| 11 Sep | A | Darmstadt | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Dresden | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Dresden | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Holstein Kiel | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Holstein Kiel | 1 - 1 | D |
| 13 Sep | H | Hertha Berlin | 1 - 3 | L |
| 17 May 2020 | Bielefeld | 1 - 1 | Osnabruck |
| 07 Oct 2019 | Osnabruck | 0 - 1 | Bielefeld |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.20 | 23.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.78 | 56.2% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |