| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 44.0% | 38% | +5.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.5% | 78% | -1.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 54.0% | 51% | +2.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 66% | -10.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.8% | 24.7% | 36.5% |
| xgboost | 39.2% | 23.0% | 37.8% |
| logistic | 28.5% | 29.1% | 42.4% |
| Willem II | Cambuur | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1329 | 1379 |
| Surface Elo | 1329 | 1379 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.33 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Utrecht | 1 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Utrecht | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | For Sittard | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | AZ Alkmaar | 2 - 2 | D |
| 18 Oct | H | AZ Alkmaar | 2 - 2 | D |
| 11 Oct | A | Zwolle | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Zwolle | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Den Haag | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 May 2022 | Cambuur | 1 - 1 | Willem II |
| 10 Dec 2021 | Willem II | 1 - 3 | Cambuur |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.64 | 37.9% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.85 | 26.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.56 | 39.1% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.53 | 65.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.60 | 38.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |