OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-26
⚽ League Two · Saturday 26 September 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Newport County 0.60 2 - 1 1.80 Grimsby
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 53.2%54%-1.1%✗ miss
DCDraw or away 76.7%82%-5.3%✗ miss
DNBAway (DNB) 69.8%73%-3.5%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 43.2%51%-7.7%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 51.7%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson29.1%24.9%45.9%
xgboost26.3%22.0%51.7%
logistic19.2%27.7%53.1%
Inputs the models saw
Newport CountyGrimsby
Elo (pre-match)13421539
Surface Elo13421539
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.601.80
Form trend-0.10-0.60
Season points per game0.861.86
Season goals for / game1.431.57
Season goals against / game1.570.86
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W4 W · 4 D
Newport County: last 5
22 SepASwindon2 - 0W
19 SepAAccrington0 - 0D
19 SepAAccrington0 - 0D
12 SepHFleetwood Town1 - 1D
05 SepANorthampton0 - 1L
Grimsby: last 5
22 SepANotts County1 - 2L
19 SepHCrawley Town2 - 0W
19 SepHCrawley Town2 - 0W
12 SepHBristol Rvs2 - 0W
05 SepACheltenham2 - 2D
Head to head
07 Feb 2026Newport County0 - 0Grimsby
16 Aug 2025Grimsby2 - 1Newport County
22 Mar 2025Grimsby1 - 0Newport County
16 Nov 2024Newport County0 - 0Grimsby
06 Apr 2024Grimsby1 - 0Newport County
16 Dec 2023Newport County1 - 1Grimsby
07 Mar 2023Grimsby1 - 1Newport County
03 Sep 2022Newport County0 - 2Grimsby
06 Feb 2021Newport County1 - 0Grimsby
08 Dec 2020Grimsby0 - 2Newport County
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away1.8653.8%26 Sep 15:00
Bet3651X2draw3.4029.4%26 Sep 15:00
Bet3651X2home3.9025.6%26 Sep 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.9052.6%26 Sep 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.9551.3%26 Sep 15:00
SportyBet1X2away1.9351.8%26 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.6027.8%26 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2home3.8026.3%26 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.8454.4%26 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.9351.8%26 Sep 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:28 UTC