| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 42.6% | 48% | -5.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 74.6% | 79% | -4.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 53.1% | 66% | -13.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.2% | 50% | +3.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 51.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.6% | 27.7% | 32.6% |
| xgboost | 33.7% | 28.4% | 37.8% |
| logistic | 37.2% | 27.8% | 34.9% |
| Hartlepool | Hornchurch | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1392 | 1483 |
| Surface Elo | 1392 | 1483 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.92 | 1.62 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.92 | 1.15 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.46 | 1.46 |
| Rest days | 13 | 14 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | H | Marine FC | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Forest Green | 4 - 2 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Forest Green | 4 - 2 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Tamworth | 0 - 1 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Tamworth | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Eastleigh | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Eastleigh | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Fulham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Harrogate | 0 - 3 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Harrogate | 0 - 3 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.50 | 28.6% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.95 | 51.3% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.95 | 51.3% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.85 | 54.0% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.33 | 30.0% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.79 | 55.9% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 24 Oct 06:15 |