| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.1% | 52% | -4.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 73.1% | 84% | -11.2% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 62.3% | 68% | -6.1% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.1% | 74% | -14.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 49.5% | 24.3% | 26.2% |
| xgboost | 43.6% | 29.0% | 27.3% |
| logistic | 36.0% | 29.3% | 34.8% |
| Augsburg | Hertha Berlin | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1623 | 1546 |
| Surface Elo | 1623 | 1546 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 12 | 12 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 7 W · 2 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Werder Bremen | 2 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 - 2 | D |
| 06 Sep | A | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 - 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Schalke 04 | 3 - 0 | W |
| 16 May | A | Union Berlin | 0 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Dresden | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Dresden | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Osnabruck | 3 - 1 | W |
| 06 Sep | H | Magdeburg | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | Braunschweig | 5 - 3 | W |
| 25 Feb 2023 | Hertha Berlin | 2 - 0 | Augsburg |
| 04 Sep 2022 | Augsburg | 0 - 2 | Hertha Berlin |
| 16 Apr 2022 | Augsburg | 0 - 1 | Hertha Berlin |
| 27 Nov 2021 | Hertha Berlin | 1 - 1 | Augsburg |
| 06 Mar 2021 | Hertha Berlin | 2 - 1 | Augsburg |
| 07 Nov 2020 | Augsburg | 0 - 3 | Hertha Berlin |
| 30 May 2020 | Hertha Berlin | 2 - 0 | Augsburg |
| 24 Nov 2019 | Augsburg | 4 - 0 | Hertha Berlin |
| 11 May 2019 | Augsburg | 3 - 4 | Hertha Berlin |
| 18 Dec 2018 | Hertha Berlin | 2 - 2 | Augsburg |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.10 | 32.3% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.92 | 52.1% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.36 | 73.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.80 | 35.7% | 02 Oct 06:15 |