| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.0% | 54% | -0.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| logistic | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| Mariano Navone | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1856 | 1802 |
| Surface Elo | 1856 | 1802 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | H | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Sep | H | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 0 - 3 | L |
| 02 Sep | H | Matteo Berrettini | 3 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Mariano Navone | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Yi Zhou | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | Jiri Lehecka | 1 - 3 | L |
| 08 Oct 2026 | Mariano Navone | 1 - 2 | Pablo Carreno Busta |
| 27 May 2024 | Mariano Navone | 3 - 1 | Pablo Carreno Busta |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.68 | 59.5% | 08 Oct 06:15 |